DODD MAN OUT?

Last week the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute in Hamden released a poll testing voter sentiment on the presidential race in the tri-state area of Connecticut, New York, and New Jersey. The results contained good news for two "locals," former New York City mayor Rudy Giuliani, now running for the Republican presidential nomination, and New York Sen. Hillary Clinton, who's seeking the Democratic presidential nod. However, Connecticut's supposed "favorite son" in the White House sweepstakes, Democratic Sen. Christopher Dodd, didn't do so well.

"In Albany, Trenton, and Hartford, the Republican refrain is 'Rah for Rudy,'" said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. Guiliani scored 42% of the Connecticut Republican voters surveyed in the "Q-Poll" with Sen. John McCain (R-Arizona) a distant second with 14% of voters. Rudy scores just as well in New York and New Jersey.

Clinton dominates in Connecticut, logging 43% of Democratic voters in the poll, well ahead of Sen. Barack Obama (D-Illinois), former North Carolina senator John Edwards, and Dodd. Her lead over Obama increased dramatically in Connecticut since the last "Q-poll" back in May. Clinton does as well or better in New York and Jersey.

Dodd's quixotic campaign for the Democratic presidential nomination just can't get past first gear. In most national polls he shows up at just 1%, sometimes less, but you'd figure his home state of Connecticut might offer a glimmer of hope. Yet in the latest "Q-poll" Dodd was favored by just 7% of Democratic voters surveyed. In New York and New Jersey he logged the dreaded 1%.

"As the next-door neighbor, Connecticut voters are preferring (Clinton) over their native son (Dodd); and they're also saying they want Dodd to stay in the Senate," said Douglas Schwartz, Quinnipiac University Poll Director. "This goes to the strength of Hillary Clinton," Schwartz explained, "and somewhat to the failure of Dodd to gain any traction."

Up to this point in the presidential race (which seems to have been going on forever) Schwartz said Clinton and Obama "have really sucked all the oxygen out of the room" and the second-tier candidates just haven't been able to get the attention of the media or the voters.

The Dodd campaign maintains there is still plenty of action left in the presidential sweepstakes including state-by-state primaries and caucuses that may produce different results than national or regional polls. Dodd spokesman Colleen Flanagan said her boss is "not discouraged at all."

Taking a closer look at the leaders in the region—Giuliani and Clinton—they stand to score big in delegate support if their poll numbers in New York, New Jersey, and Connecticut hold up or improve as time marches on.

Republicans use the "winner-take-all" principle in their primaries, so if Giuliani keeps his lead, he would rack up 183 GOP delegates. That figure represents 15% of the 1,228 delegates needed to achieve the nomination. Connecticut, New York and New Jersey hold their primaries February 5th, 2008.

Democrats employ proportional allocation in their primaries and caucuses, so Clinton can't scoop up all the delegates in any given primary. However, some estimates indicate Clinton could win more than half the delegates up for grabs in the tri-state region, or more than 250 of the 2,181 delegates need to win the nomination.

By the way, the latest Quinnipiac Poll also asked area voters to choose between Giuliani and Clinton—if that becomes the eventual match-up in the presidential sweepstakes. The results? Hillary beats Rudy 44% to 42% in Connecticut. In New York, Clinton tops Giuliani 50% to 36%. In New Jersey, the two are dead even right now.

If you'd like to view all the details in the tri-state poll, check out the polling website here.

Posted 10/22/07

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