WAKE-UP CALLS

A new poll from the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute in Hamden is a political wake-up call for Connecticut's two Democratic U.S. Senators Chris Dodd and Joe Lieberman.

The message for Dodd: It's time to give up your tilting-at-windmills bid for the 2008 Democratic presidential nomination, come home to Connecticut (and Washington, D.C.), and focus on being senator.

The message for Lieberman: It's time to rethink your dogged support for the highly unpopular Iraq war before it erodes your base of voters.

"The poll is bad news for Sen. Dodd," said Quinnipiac University Poll Director Douglas Schwartz. "55% of Connecticut voters says he's spending too much time running for president, not enough time being senator from Connecticut, and 70% say he should drop out of the presidential race."

If that isn't discouraging enough, the Q-poll also asked Connecticut voters if they believe Dodd would make a good president, and the majority, 57%, said no. Remember these are Connecticut voters, the folks who know Dodd best, not heartless folks from "Somewhere USA."

Dodd insists polls can be misleading because the nomination will be decided by individual state caucuses and primaries, and he could score in key early states such as Iowa. Connecticut voters may not like to read this, but Dodd moved his family to Iowa and set up residence there so he can work the state hard before caucus day.

However, Schwartz notes that even though Dodd is determined to "give Iowa a try," a la The Music Man, there's no evidence he's catching on. "(Dodd) has not gotten above 1% in the national polls, and he's not doing any better in Iowa where he has staked his fortune," said the pollster. "It's not just Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama beating him, he's also losing to (Bill) Richardson and Joe Biden in Iowa," Schwartz added.

Whether they feel Dodd is in presidential fantasyland or neglecting his Senate duties and Connecticut, voters here have lowered their opinion of the state's senior U.S. Senator. Dodd's job approval rating in the latest Q-poll is 55%—still respectable in polling terms, but down five points since May.

Of course, Dodd does not have to think about Senate reelection until 2010. If his presidential bid folds, the senator has plenty of time to resume his Senate work and rebuild his rapport with Connecticut voters. Now if the eventual Democratic presidential nominee eyes Dodd as a potential vice presidential running mate, that's a different kettle of fish!

As for Lieberman, the Q-poll didn't produce a distinct red flag warning, but there is cause for concern. You'll recall that Lieberman survived a rough-and-tumble U.S. Senate race in 2006 in which he was denied the Democratic party's nomination and had to run an independent campaign to save his seat and his political career.

Lieberman's strong support for the Iraq war hurt him in 2006 and continues to eat away at his popularity among Connecticut voters. His job approval in the latest Q-poll is 52% and it's been sliding downward since July 2006.

The poll asked Connecticut folks who voted for Lieberman in 2006 if they would vote for him now. 78% said yes, but Schwartz said that's not necessarily good news, because 15% would vote for someone else. "This suggests that if the Senate election were held today, it would be closer," he explained.

It is unrealistic to think you could recreate the emotions, conditions, and candidate strengths of 2006 and apply 2007 poll results. However, the poll does show voters continue to fume about the Iraq war. 66% of those surveyed believe the U.S. decision to go to war was a mistake and that number has been climbing since July 2006.

Connecticut voters have reelected Dodd and Lieberman many times, but no one in politics is immune to defeat. Surveys such as the Quinnipiac University Poll should not be tossed aside by these two lawmakers.

Posted 11/12/07

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